A New Chapter for Canadian Immigration: What the 2025 Election Means for the Future of Newcomers

Written By: Deepika Gupta, Articling Student

Now that the dust has settled from the 2025 Federal Election, many people are left wondering what a new government might mean for Canada’s immigration system. Newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government is promising a “sustainable” approach, with reduced targets for both permanent and temporary residents. Carney has said, “Immigration remains important, but it needs to be better aligned with what Canada can handle effectively.”[1] While the intention is to balance growth with resources like housing and healthcare, these changes mean the pathway to temporary and permanent residence may become more challenging for many applicants.

The government has announced that permanent resident targets will drop from 395,000 in 2025 to 365,000 by 2027. Temporary residents—Including international students and foreign workers—will also see tighter controls. The goal? To bring their share of the population down from 7.3% to 5% by 2028. Carney has been candid about the reasons, admitting that “we had much higher levels of foreign workers, students, and new Canadians coming in than we could absorb, than we had housing for, healthcare for, social services for, and then we have opportunities for.”[2]

What does this mean for specific groups, like skilled workers coming from the U.S. seeking a safer life in Canada?

For U.S. transfers, the fundamentals remain strong; Canada is still a top destination for American professionals, especially those in tech and academia. The new 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan brings notable changes for U.S. immigrants. The government is reducing overall permanent resident admissions by 105,000 in 2025 compared to previous projections, with a strong focus on applicants already living and working in Canada as temporary residents. Over 40% of new permanent residents will come from this group.[3] This means U.S. citizens already in Canada on work or study permits will have a better chance of transitioning to permanent residency than those outside of Canada, especially if they are in sectors like healthcare or skilled trades, which are now prioritized through category-based draws.[4]

For Americans considering moving directly from the U.S., the process may become more competitive. Programs like the Global Talent Stream and CUSMA professional transfers are still in place, but there’s a new emphasis on matching applicants with areas of real economic need. Prime Minister Carney signaled a focus on streamlining skilled immigration, which could benefit U.S. tech and healthcare workers through faster Express Entry processing.

Looking Forward: What Kind of Safe Haven Will Canada Be?

Canada has long been seen as a haven for 2SLGBTQIA+ refugees fleeing persecution. The government continues to fund over 500 settlement organizations, offering services like job training, counselling, and language classes.[5] 

On May 13th, 2025, with Lena Metlege Diab stepping in as Canada’s new Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, the country’s approach to immigration is poised for a thoughtful blend of structure, fairness, and inclusivity. Diab brings a wealth of experience as a lawyer, community advocate, and former Nova Scotia Minister of Immigration. She is known for expanding newcomer pathways and supporting economic growth while always keeping an eye on community capacity and integration.[6][7][8]

What stands out about Diab is her genuine commitment to diversity and inclusion. She has a proven record of supporting groups, including the 2SLGBTQIA+ community. In her previous roles, Diab championed funding for 2SLGBTQIA+ organizations in Nova Scotia, including support for the Truro Pride Society and Gender Affirming Care Nova Scotia. These initiatives focused on making services more accessible and affirming for queer and trans people. She believes in fostering environments where everyone can thrive, regardless of background or identity.

Diab’s track record suggests she will continue to support policies that balance economic growth with sustainable community capacity, prioritize Francophone and racialized newcomers, and refine permanent residency and work permit pathways to ensure fairness and opportunity for all.[9] 

There are still concerns, however, about how the Safe Third Country Agreement puts many 2SLGBTQIA+ asylum seekers in the U.S. at risk of removal to their countries of nationality. Organizations like Rainbow Railroad are urging the government to exempt trans, non-binary, and intersex asylum seekers from the Safe Third Country Agreement with the U.S., arguing that “Canada must continue to prioritize Canadian values on the world stage, and act as a safe haven for those seeking safety from persecution based on their 2SLGBTQIA+ identity.”[10] [11]

So, while Canada’s reputation as a welcoming country for 2SLGBTQIA+ immigrants remains strong, the reality is that new government policies are making the journey more competitive and, for some, more uncertain. The community’s message to Ottawa is clear: keep Canada a true safe haven, and don’t lose sight of the unique risks and needs faced by 2SLGBTQIA+ newcomers in a changing world.

Reflecting on this, we can’t help but feel a mix of pride and concern. Canada has built a reputation as a beacon of hope for 2SLGBTQIA+ people around the world, and it’s something we should fiercely protect. We can understand the new government’s focus on sustainability and integration, especially with the pressures on housing and healthcare that so many of us see in our communities. But as these policies shift and targets tighten, we mustn’t lose sight of the human stories behind the numbers.

Overall, while policy adjustments are ongoing, Canada’s reputation as a safe haven for immigrants is expected to remain strong under the new minister’s leadership, with a continued commitment to equal rights and protection for all.

Whether the trend of restrictions continues or this new government moves towards a more expansive model, Battista Migration Law Group is here. We pride ourselves on providing clear, transparent legal advice to each of our clients. We are not afraid to get creative while being realistic about what options make sense.

If you would like to know about you and your family’s options for migration to Canada, please contact us at (416) 203-2899, or Kate@MigrationLawGroup.com.

[1]https://www.ipolitics.ca/2025/04/04/federal-election-2025-whats-at-stake-for-immigration-policy/

[2]https://www.cicnews.com/2025/03/whats-mark-carneys-immigration-agenda-0352758.html#gs.m4kw9k

[3] https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2024/10/20252027-immigration-levels-plan.html

[4] Ibid.

[5]https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/refugees/about-refugee-system/2slgbtqi-plus.html

[6] https://www.cicnews.com/2025/05/lena-metlege-diab-named-canadas-new-immigration-minister-0555287.html#gs.lpgrs5

[7] https://immigration.ca/lena-metlege-diab-appointed-canadas-new-immigration-minister/

[8] https://immigrationnewscanada.ca/canada-immigration-lena-metlege-diab/

[9] https://immigration.ca/lena-metlege-diab-appointed-canadas-new-immigration-minister/

[10]https://www.rainbowrailroad.org/the-latest/canada-must-act-exempt-trans-non-binary-intersex-asylum-seekers-from-stca

[11] https://ccla.org/equality/lgbtq2s/civil-society-groups-call-for-immediate-suspension-of-safe-third-country-agreement-with-united-states-of-america/